Or pick up 2 bricks. I did.

> I think most of these don't apply to dumbbells. At least not on a short term.

It does apply and is very pertinent, especially with ever decreasing operating capital in the small business sector; less predictable turnover/resupply rates and the likelihood that excess inventory turns into liabilities that can only be recovered via a liquidation process if they get it wrong is a risk that must be mitigated.

100% optimization in supply forecasting is an unobtainable panacea, but as has been seen with the asymmetric application to Gym Shutdowns, that varies by State, it reflects how uneven the reward could play out. Cost management is a huge part of Supply Chain and Logistics, so the constraints are obvious if you really take the time to analyze the situation.

I think all this underscores is the glaring single point of failure starring back at us with an entirely outsourced manufacturing infrastructure, and the inherit fallacy within it.

Gyms are open in my state, and I'm glad that they are because the buying all the machine and equipment that I use on a regular basis would require exceeding 10s of thousands of dollars, not to mention the pool and the still closed steam room/sauna I used prior to the shutdown.

> Now, the shortage seems to have kickstarted small shops dumbbell production lines (which are easier to put together than kettlebells)

Proving that the US can still manufacture despite the limited infrastructure and hollowing out of the means and resources to do so in the aftermath of Globalization.

I think what baffles me is how in my lifetime the notion of actual manufacturing-fabrication went from something that elevated so many in the US into the middle class came to be looked down upon and seen beneath an 'educated' person.

Especially because I actively participated in something where it was normal that undergrad to PhD mechanical and electrical engineers from Ivy Leagues Universities were working hand in hand with sometimes HS dropout mechanics and fabricators (on forums!) to develop better turbos and fuel mapping hardware/ECUs that were surpassing the gains of OEMs and even the well established aftermarket manufactures especially at time that it was being entirely under-served despite a significant demand that only increased with time. And then creating viable business models on those very same forums to serve as customer facing business with nothing more than a thread, a paypal account alongside a guy with tig welder a soldering gun.

Trump is an imbecile that predictably conned his way into office, and I hope he gets removed, despite the alternative not looking any better. But I really want the West to realize that the spotlight and rhetoric (mainly lip service) he put on China/CCP is warranted, and what occurred in Hong Kong is only a taste of what they're capable of and what they will do to their own kind (HK is Ethnically Han Chinese).

Reliance on such an oppressive regime is not sustainable and never ends well and the pitfalls and subsequent shortages of this centralized manufacturing infrastructure for even essential goods, like PPE, should be a much needed wake up call for manufacturing to return to at least their own continent(s).

> Or pick up 2 bricks. I did.

I resorted to filling 2 liter soda bottles and gallons with water for various lifts and isolation reps, it was a very dissatisfying experience from what I was used to but... it did help keep me somewhat fit, my upperbody PBs/Max lifts were only off by 15% by the time I went back to the gym when they reopened by mid Summer.

Sidenote: I just applied to a positions as Logistics Coordinator for a fitness equipment company, and they're currently on a 10-15 day delay on current orders. I kind of hope I can interview just to see the inner mechanics of what this all entails and where supply is being sourced from.

> If you're JITting then those costs you claim will not go away, they're just passed on to your suppliers

Except your suppliers are JIT'ing, too, just as you are, for all the same reasons.

The savings may seem small to you, but if you are in a price competitive market (as is the case for most physical goods) your percentage markups are typically very small compared to what software developers are accustomed to. The grocery industry, for example, is famous for making about 2% profit margin. That means if you can shave 1% off your costs, you increase your profits by 50% in that industry. Very small optimizations can have phenomenal impacts on the risk and profitability of physical product and supply chains.

> What's [shrinkage]

Shrinkage is an industry term for items that get lost in physical supply chains. It's often hard to know what is theft and what is loss of products due to other processes like things getting misplaced, lost in shipping, accidentally shipped to the wrong customers, discarded by mistake, etc. If you run a large enough physical logistics system, you will inevitably have some amount of unexplained loss in the system. That unexplained loss is known as shrinkage, and it's a real and measurable cost in all physical industries (in the grocery industry shrinkage is about 1%, some fraction of which is theft and some fraction of which is other processes).

> That's why national governments typically have National Emergency Reserves or something like this, but naturally, even they only stockpile really basic and absolutely necessary stuff.

That is a very inaccurate statement when it came to PPE, and how it was handled at even the hospital and Union Rep level where first line workers (mainly nurses) had to resort to make their own from trash bags and such only to be reprimanded, told to STFU, fired in one case one died for their ad-hoc problem solving solutions where Governments failed to provide its medical workers with these 'basic' reserves.

1: https://nypost.com/2020/05/14/nurses-union-fires-potty-mouth...

2: https://nypost.com/2020/03/25/worker-at-nyc-hospital-where-n...

3: https://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/news/2020/04/15/nur...