As I mentioned elsewhere, it’s debatable whether or not the other tech giants are really going to bother creating another app store, and then force users to migrate there.
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30280457
Such a move is basically mutually assured destruction- they would be taking their critical app off the official Apple App Store, and in doing so inviting huge customer backlash. Besides the negative press, at least a fraction of users will not migrate over- both HN power users technical and ideological enough to reject entering a user data harvesting shady app store, and the less technically adept users who can’t figure out how to enable such a store. Not to mention, everyone who is sick and tired of having to manage yet another user account forced upon them by a tech giant. It’s guaranteed that not 100% of existing users would transition, and even if it’s not a huge amount, it would be upsetting the apple cart and damaging the brand.
There’s more considerations beyond that I mentioned previously- the difficulties of these companies now having to create their own parallel iOS app ecosystems- again, ask Facebook how their own platform’s app community is faring these days, let alone every smartphone app market that isn’t iOS or Android.
And it’s debatable that these tech giants can even successfully create a sufficiently compelling alternate app market from a product or business perspective. It feels like all of the giants are at a point where they’re engaged in side projects- cloud gaming, Clubhouse clones, Snapchat stories clones, Libra- that don’t really have staying power, as far as new products go. Creating a parasitic clone iOS App Store would yet be another boondoggle, and committing to it, as I mention, is MAD- Apple loses their apps, and these companies are forever tied to having to maintain and work on their 3rd party app stores. In fact, one can easily imagine a Meta pulling back and resubmitting Facebook, Instagram, etc. back to the official App Store after initially removing them. And it’s incredibly easy to imagine Google resigning an iOS Play Store to the Google Graveyard before you can say Stadia.
Smartphone software has been around a decade now. I don’t think it’s so easy to woo users over with your own carbon copy that offers nothing. Not to mention, perhaps these companies might invite regulator antitrust attention as well if they keep truly “critical apps” away from the official App Store. There’s a lot of possible implications.
I think the prospect of tech giant data-harvesting third party iOS app stores is a fascinating prospect that hasn’t been examined in detail. Too often it’s used as a bogeyman, “Facebook will take away their app and track you!” against sideloading. The reality is probably more complex that that, and I would argue that opening iOS to alternate app marketplaces and sideloading might actually increase business opportunities and vectors of positive innovation for Apple. But that’s the subject of another comment.
Epic has wanted to do this for a long time. If you have enough clout like Fortnite had, you can do it. You also have GOG, Steam and other game stores on PC. They might also push “mobile carriers should be able to install whatever they want”-legislation that adds extra app stores.
You make some good points, but in my linked comment, and in the comment linked to that comment, I do carve out an exception that game publishers will likely be ones who want to pursue having their own third party app stores. That is because as seen in the PC gaming world, such companies can ruthlessly force gamers to join their locked down stores. But I think this is a specific niche that allows for that because games are a medium that’s developed into this sort of unique landscape.
Also, I’m uncertain if many of these companies really have that many iOS game exclusives to incentivize this sort of lock in- Epic being a major exception. But most other publishers don’t exactly have big iOS libraries. Most of their apps are more like incidental tie-in material accompanying their actual PC and console titles.