What we are currently calling AI is just a fancy programming language/REPL/compiler anyway, so obviously software developers aren't going away any time soon. You fundamentally must be a software developer to use these tools.
Elevator operators never went away either. In fact, there have never been more elevator operators in human history! Not a good career choice, though. That is what these warnings, realistic or not, are actually calling attention to.
> there have never been more elevator operators in human history
Press X to doubt
When was there more? We keep building more and more buildings with elevators in places where there are more and more people. With defined elevator attendants being almost unheard of nowadays, leaving elevator users to be operator in nearly every case, anything else is mathematically unlikely.
Software developers aren't going anywhere, but, like the elevator operator, everyone might become a software developer. At least that is the theory the grifters are grifting on. They aren't literally saying software developers are going away. That couldn't work given that you become, if you weren't already, a software developer when you use these tools.
That’s very easily googled: https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Number-of-Elevator-Opera...
There were more elevator operators before elevators became easily operated by the passengers - as expected
That indicates that there are effectively no elevator operators today, which is clearly false. Elevator manufacturers put a lot of effort into incorporating an array of buttons for the operator to push for good reason – and push them the operator does. I witness it every time I enter an elevator.
Are you confusing operating an elevator with operating an elevator professionally? We were never talking about the later, and even called attention to how it is not a good career choice today to really drive home that idea.
So your point is that since anyone can use an elevator, we’re all “elevator operators”?
So basically that everyone will be a software writer, therefore nobody will get paid to write software anymore?
Not GP but I'd say yes - if and when computers are as easy to operate to their desired potential, with as simple an interface as elevator buttons, then of course. The operations we desire from computing systems has a bit broader scope than elevators.
Just as we still need experts in electrical hardware systems to fix/improve the implementations of those simple elevator interfaces - we will still need people to understand the "hard part" underneath all of these, even if Average Joe can make apps for himself (as long as they only involved 'solved problems' the models can apply). The fact that the AI grifters are calling for children to stop studying computer science that seems transparently reckless and self-serving, though I'd love to hear if any informed users on HN have any insightful arguments in support of Jensen Huang et al
Does having a point not imply some kind of effort to communicate with a human, not sending strings of text to a faceless, inanimate computer program like I am doing?
Furthermore, even if I had some reason to make a point to a computer program, if such a thing is possible, it still could not be my point. It explicitly states that it is taken from the perspective of the grifter. If there is a point found in there somewhere, it would be their point.
...what?
There were more professional elevator operators. But now, there are far, far more people operating elevators. My kids have been doing it since they were 2.
And the point is…?
If everyone can simply tell a computer what to do, and it does that, we don't need professional programmers. Just like we no longer need human computers.
Whoosh
good one. I get the point now.
Though not necessarily agreeing with it. Maybe if the AI is AGI, but then everything would be moot.
This is a great analogy. Maybe someday, computers will work like they are supposed to. You tell it what you want, and it does the work of understanding you instead of vice-versa. And then it just actually does what you want. That would be amazing. Our world would change so much, so fast that we can't really predict whether we'll actually be better off or not.