Rising defaults on car loans, increasing term lengths for car loans, people living off credit cards, increasing unemployment, reduced job availability, divisive politics, unstable foreign relations, out of control spending/debt, … and yet a stock market that is at record highs. I also wonder why gold and crypto are doing so well at the same time. Everything is high but it seems like a bad situation. And yet, people will get laughed at for predicting a recession or some other event, because it’s hard to predict the timing. Still, I feel like something has to give.
I’ve been quickly taking stuff out of the market. No one wants to say we’re in a recession because it would make the stock market go down. The fact is, we are in a recession. It’s an oxymoron.
Why do you think you’re able to time the market? What if it keeps going up? Even if you’re right that the market eventually drops, you’ll still need to be right in timing your re-entry. It’s not as easy as it sounds.
Because people so commonly misuse and misunderstand the phrase "time the market," I'll take a moment to clarify:
If a kid comes down your street selling you lemons because their lemonade stand didn't work out, and they start selling them to you at $10/lb and you say, "Uh thanks kid, but I can buy them from Walmart for 75¢ each," and then another kid running a failed, overpriced lemonade venture comes around and tries to sell them to you for $5/lb and he clarifies that all the grocery stores near by are sold out and aren't getting any more lemons until next season, and CNN says there is a new insect killing off citrus trees, you're not timing anything when you look in your backyard, which has two producing lemon trees and you start offering them to your neighbors at $2/lb since no one can buy them from stores.
Now for the adults in the room, if 3 month treasury bills are yielding nearly the same as 10 year treasury bills,
...you’re not "timing the market" by preferring one over the other. You’re recognizing the price of risk and time. If lending money for ten years barely pays more than lending for three months, the market is telling you something about growth, inflation, and future policy rates. Choosing the shorter bill isn’t speculation. It’s responding to the information embedded in yields, just as choosing to sell lemons from your backyard isn’t speculation but simply adjusting to supply, demand, and alternatives available.
Isn't that all because of Big Tech? All the other Fortune 495, or 995 companies are mostly flat or down over the past few years. The AI bubble is effectively a private economic stimulus program. When that money stops, everyone's going to have a bad day.
The leading indicator to me was when I started spending more time trying to recover from identity thefts every year than not. The frauds became novel, no longer just maxing out retail credit lines to baby goods and lingerie shops, but exploiting internal corporate processes that were tedious to discover, explain, and clear. I'm not really served by credit, so it felt like I was going through a lot of effort talking with companies, writing affidavits, and getting police reports for nothing.
So I stopped fixing it.
And guess what? Not having perfect credit made me such an unattractive target that it hasn't happened since. I write letters of dispute to the bureaus, but if they choose not to remove anything (the debt collectors are much easier to convince, by comparison), I suppose that's as far as I'll go until I need it.
Rising defaults on car loans, increasing term lengths for car loans, people living off credit cards, increasing unemployment, reduced job availability, divisive politics, unstable foreign relations, out of control spending/debt, … and yet a stock market that is at record highs. I also wonder why gold and crypto are doing so well at the same time. Everything is high but it seems like a bad situation. And yet, people will get laughed at for predicting a recession or some other event, because it’s hard to predict the timing. Still, I feel like something has to give.
Collapse of dollar value means you need more dollars to buy things.
Yeah I've been slowly taking stuff out of the market, it feels illogically high.
I’ve been quickly taking stuff out of the market. No one wants to say we’re in a recession because it would make the stock market go down. The fact is, we are in a recession. It’s an oxymoron.
Where are you putting the stuff you take out of the market?
Exactly this. Selling stocks <=> Buying USD.
Are they buying bonds? Investing in foreign countries? Real estate? Gold? Crypto?
Holding cash is surely a losing bet I doubt we will see any deflation even if a shit ton of people lose their jobs.
Why do you think you’re able to time the market? What if it keeps going up? Even if you’re right that the market eventually drops, you’ll still need to be right in timing your re-entry. It’s not as easy as it sounds.
Because people so commonly misuse and misunderstand the phrase "time the market," I'll take a moment to clarify:
If a kid comes down your street selling you lemons because their lemonade stand didn't work out, and they start selling them to you at $10/lb and you say, "Uh thanks kid, but I can buy them from Walmart for 75¢ each," and then another kid running a failed, overpriced lemonade venture comes around and tries to sell them to you for $5/lb and he clarifies that all the grocery stores near by are sold out and aren't getting any more lemons until next season, and CNN says there is a new insect killing off citrus trees, you're not timing anything when you look in your backyard, which has two producing lemon trees and you start offering them to your neighbors at $2/lb since no one can buy them from stores.
Now for the adults in the room, if 3 month treasury bills are yielding nearly the same as 10 year treasury bills,
...you’re not "timing the market" by preferring one over the other. You’re recognizing the price of risk and time. If lending money for ten years barely pays more than lending for three months, the market is telling you something about growth, inflation, and future policy rates. Choosing the shorter bill isn’t speculation. It’s responding to the information embedded in yields, just as choosing to sell lemons from your backyard isn’t speculation but simply adjusting to supply, demand, and alternatives available.
> and yet a stock market that is at record highs.
Isn't that all because of Big Tech? All the other Fortune 495, or 995 companies are mostly flat or down over the past few years. The AI bubble is effectively a private economic stimulus program. When that money stops, everyone's going to have a bad day.
A bad time to want a damn corum coin watch to be sure. Gotta wait :(
We're at the tip of a recession right now. Mass layoffs coming next year. The market bubble is going to pop. It's going to be bad.
How do you know that?
The leading indicator to me was when I started spending more time trying to recover from identity thefts every year than not. The frauds became novel, no longer just maxing out retail credit lines to baby goods and lingerie shops, but exploiting internal corporate processes that were tedious to discover, explain, and clear. I'm not really served by credit, so it felt like I was going through a lot of effort talking with companies, writing affidavits, and getting police reports for nothing.
So I stopped fixing it.
And guess what? Not having perfect credit made me such an unattractive target that it hasn't happened since. I write letters of dispute to the bureaus, but if they choose not to remove anything (the debt collectors are much easier to convince, by comparison), I suppose that's as far as I'll go until I need it.