Show HN: Open load forecasts that beat US grid operators on 6 of 7 RTOs

2 points by tylergibbs1 21 hours ago

Fine-tuned Chronos-2 on 7 years of EIA-930 demand + ASOS temperature for every US balancing authority that publishes a load series — 53 across the three interconnections.

On a 2025 hold-out (~61,000 hours), it beats the operators' own day-ahead submissions to EIA — the production forecasts they use to schedule generation — on 6 of 7 major RTOs. Macro MAE ~40% lower. The one loss is ISO-NE, whose forecasting is just very good (24h-ahead MASE 0.34). On the same window, CAISO and SPP operator submissions did worse than "same as yesterday."

The site plots the median + 80% PI band against the operator submission, with 48h of actuals running into the forecast.

Code, model on HF, operator-comparison benchmark reproduces from one script:

- https://github.com/tylergibbs1/surge - https://huggingface.co/Tylerbry1/surge-fm-v3