I suggest also reading Kevin Buzzard's blog post which was just posted: https://xenaproject.wordpress.com/2026/09/04/flt-anthropic-h...
Provides great context on this accomplishment, what it means but also doesn't mean.
I suggest also reading Kevin Buzzard's blog post which was just posted: https://xenaproject.wordpress.com/2026/09/04/flt-anthropic-h...
Provides great context on this accomplishment, what it means but also doesn't mean.
Thanks! I've added that link to the toptext.
I'd really like to make it the top link (and relegate https://www.anthropic.com/research/formalizing-fermats-last-... to the toptext) since HN has been tracking the work of https://news.ycombinator.com/user?id=kevinbuzzard for a long time and we're big fans. But I guess that would be overkill.
I’m not very good at mathematics, but it seems like Kevin should take his girlfriend on trips more often for the good of all mathematicians.
We should start a gofundme to send him 2 months to a remote tribe in the Amazon. Chances are, we see the Riemann hypothesis and twin prime conjecture proven. ;)
"I was given £1M to run my project over 5 years; Anthropic took only 11 days but I do wonder if they spent more money…"
Gives you an idea of the scale...
It sounds plausible they spent more, given the output tokens (6 billion of them) would cost $300k at API prices and presumably there will have been many more input tokens than output tokens.
Unlikely, api pricing includes a healthy profit margin (as near as we can tell from the outside) which they wouldn’t charge themselves.
I don't think Anthropic is turning a profit ;)
Neither did Amazon for it's first 25 years ;)
I think you're missing the point of the comment you responded to, lol.
Regardless the profit margin as a talking point seems to be bad as AI as a tech might never be reversed whether anthropic failed or succeeded. Indeed it's imperative we subsidize AI companies and tech to make them explore more solutions to scientific problems which has a downstream effect on human flourishing.
Or we could invest in a ton of other non AI related research we're underinvesting in.
Like? I feel breakthroughs that can be found via AI might help us more in the long term where even previously non AI fields can be helped by AI. So you have specific non AI research in mind that we're underinvesting in? Because the USA is already spending crazy anyway for healthcare and I don't feel like funding is the issue but better incentives, reforms etc
Like funding education. Let's build up human intelligence instead, they seem to have made great breakthroughs in every single field!
The US doesn't pay too much to healthcare, they pay too much to health insurance. Too much for too little value
Amazon didn't make a profit because they were reinvesting money into starting new lines of business.
Basically there was a choice between taking the money, and growing. They chose growth.
As opposed to...?
Whether on net they turn a profit as company overall is neither here nor there.. My point is that they are selling API tokens at a profit (or if being pedantic, then at a price higher than the cost to serve them ignoring research costs). And that that price is got a healthy margin which they don't charge themselves.
Because of the ongoing training costs. They are certainly making a healthy profit margin on inference.
Never really a sound argument.
It's like having new solar panels installed every week. Sure you're "profitable" on the $0.20/kWh you're selling your "free" energy at when you ignore the cost of the solar panels you're buying every week.
> healthy profit margin (as near as we can tell from the outside)
Ugh we still don't know if this is true and it's nearly impossible to calculate without a full understanding of the real CAPEX cycle. Stop spreading these rumors until we know for sure.
SemiAnalysis estimates their profit margin to be 70%. To be losing money on inference implies that their costs are almost 4X higher than SemiAnalysis has calculated. That's not credible.
I don’t see how they could credibly estimate inference costs without knowing the model size.
But we do have a reasonable estimate of model size.
The token price seems like a poor measure.
Building the LLM that could do this work in 11 days cost multi billions.
The economics probably only make sense if LLMs prove to be a benefit to almost everyone in a way we can all accept.
Otherwise this cost a lot more than we’d otherwise pay. It was incredibly fast though. But we all know: cost, speed, quality. Pick two.
I burned $70 on fable 5.1 Max in about 2 hours. I suggest never using fable 5.1 on higher than High reasoning unless someone else is paying for it.
Yeah, "major conjecture proved" with unlimited token budget bankrolled by trillion dollar firm.
How many previous attempts with other models failed or on other problems. Perhaps this is $300k out of $100M or $1B of total budget just breadth first searching theorems in math and all the failed attempts conveniently don't get mentioned.
"I was given £1M to run my project over 5 years; Anthropic took only 11 days but I do wonder if they spent more money…"