faitswulff 8 hours ago

I’m not very good at mathematics, but it seems like Kevin should take his girlfriend on trips more often for the good of all mathematicians.

  • aquafox 8 hours ago

    We should start a gofundme to send him 2 months to a remote tribe in the Amazon. Chances are, we see the Riemann hypothesis and twin prime conjecture proven. ;)

BeetleB 8 hours ago

"I was given £1M to run my project over 5 years; Anthropic took only 11 days but I do wonder if they spent more money…"

Gives you an idea of the scale...

  • sebzim4500 7 hours ago

    It sounds plausible they spent more, given the output tokens (6 billion of them) would cost $300k at API prices and presumably there will have been many more input tokens than output tokens.

    • _aavaa_ 7 hours ago

      Unlikely, api pricing includes a healthy profit margin (as near as we can tell from the outside) which they wouldn’t charge themselves.

      • alch- 7 hours ago

        I don't think Anthropic is turning a profit ;)

        • dist-epoch 7 hours ago

          Neither did Amazon for it's first 25 years ;)

          • caughtinthought 6 hours ago

            I think you're missing the point of the comment you responded to, lol.

            • CaptWorld 6 hours ago

              Regardless the profit margin as a talking point seems to be bad as AI as a tech might never be reversed whether anthropic failed or succeeded. Indeed it's imperative we subsidize AI companies and tech to make them explore more solutions to scientific problems which has a downstream effect on human flourishing.

              • oblio 6 hours ago

                Or we could invest in a ton of other non AI related research we're underinvesting in.

                • CaptWorld 5 hours ago

                  Like? I feel breakthroughs that can be found via AI might help us more in the long term where even previously non AI fields can be helped by AI. So you have specific non AI research in mind that we're underinvesting in? Because the USA is already spending crazy anyway for healthcare and I don't feel like funding is the issue but better incentives, reforms etc

                  • fyredge 1 hour ago

                    Like funding education. Let's build up human intelligence instead, they seem to have made great breakthroughs in every single field!

                    The US doesn't pay too much to healthcare, they pay too much to health insurance. Too much for too little value

          • btilly 3 hours ago

            Amazon didn't make a profit because they were reinvesting money into starting new lines of business.

            Basically there was a choice between taking the money, and growing. They chose growth.

        • _aavaa_ 6 hours ago

          Whether on net they turn a profit as company overall is neither here nor there.. My point is that they are selling API tokens at a profit (or if being pedantic, then at a price higher than the cost to serve them ignoring research costs). And that that price is got a healthy margin which they don't charge themselves.

        • irthomasthomas 6 hours ago

          Because of the ongoing training costs. They are certainly making a healthy profit margin on inference.

          • Philip-J-Fry 5 hours ago

            Never really a sound argument.

            It's like having new solar panels installed every week. Sure you're "profitable" on the $0.20/kWh you're selling your "free" energy at when you ignore the cost of the solar panels you're buying every week.

      • mbesto 6 hours ago

        > healthy profit margin (as near as we can tell from the outside)

        Ugh we still don't know if this is true and it's nearly impossible to calculate without a full understanding of the real CAPEX cycle. Stop spreading these rumors until we know for sure.

        • bryanlarsen 5 hours ago

          SemiAnalysis estimates their profit margin to be 70%. To be losing money on inference implies that their costs are almost 4X higher than SemiAnalysis has calculated. That's not credible.

          • p-e-w 3 hours ago

            I don’t see how they could credibly estimate inference costs without knowing the model size.

            • FuckButtons 3 hours ago

              But we do have a reasonable estimate of model size.

      • 2muchcoffeeman 5 hours ago

        The token price seems like a poor measure.

        Building the LLM that could do this work in 11 days cost multi billions.

        The economics probably only make sense if LLMs prove to be a benefit to almost everyone in a way we can all accept.

        Otherwise this cost a lot more than we’d otherwise pay. It was incredibly fast though. But we all know: cost, speed, quality. Pick two.

  • UltraSane 5 hours ago

    I burned $70 on fable 5.1 Max in about 2 hours. I suggest never using fable 5.1 on higher than High reasoning unless someone else is paying for it.

    • paulpauper 2 hours ago

      Yeah, "major conjecture proved" with unlimited token budget bankrolled by trillion dollar firm.

  • iterateoften 4 hours ago

    How many previous attempts with other models failed or on other problems. Perhaps this is $300k out of $100M or $1B of total budget just breadth first searching theorems in math and all the failed attempts conveniently don't get mentioned.

blondie9x 4 hours ago

"I was given £1M to run my project over 5 years; Anthropic took only 11 days but I do wonder if they spent more money…"