WWIII is all but certain and the root cause is Geopolitics of Europe/USA/UK/Russia. Look at history from the time of British Empire vs. Russia (before WWII) later Soviet Union vs. USA/Europe/UK and then Russia vs. USA/Europe/UK. The new factor in current times is China which would like nothing better than have the above combatants finish each other off, so its supremacy is automatically established.
All the above participants use "Reflexive Control" against each other to Manipulate and Propagandize in furtherance of their goals - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reflexive_control
The current example is how Ukraine was manipulated into being the sacrificial lamb in order to draw Russia into invading it thus expending its resources while USA/Europe/UK don't suffer as much.
One way to understand this is via Propaganda: The Formation of Men's Attitudes by Jacques Ellul - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Propaganda:_The_Formation_of_M...
The aim of modern propaganda is no longer to modify ideas, but to provoke action. It is no longer to change adherence to a doctrine, but to make the individual cling irrationally to a process of action.
Propaganda employs encirclement on the individual by trying to surround man by all possible routes, in the realm of feelings as well as ideas, by playing on his will or his needs through his conscious and his unconscious, and by assailing him in both his private and his public life.
Propaganda is concerned with timeliness since an individual is only moved to action if he is pushed towards a timely one by propaganda..."Operational words" are used to penetrate an individual's indifference...Incidentally, there are also the undecided, people whose opinions are vague, who form the majority of citizens within the collective. These citizens are the most susceptible to control of public opinion that is dictated by propaganda.
Political Propaganda involves techniques of influence employed by a government, a party, an administration, or a pressure group with the intention of changing the behavior of the public...The methods of political propaganda are calculated in a precise manner and its main criterion is to disseminate an ideology for the very purpose of making various political acts acceptable to the people.
Sociological propaganda aims to increase conformity with the environment that is of a collective nature by developing compliance with or defense of the established order through long term penetration and progressive adaptation by using all social currents. The propaganda element is the way of life with which the individual is permeated and then the individual begins to express it in film, writing, or art without realizing it...This propaganda reinforces the individual's way of life and represents this way of life as best. Sociological propaganda creates an indisputable criterion for the individual to make judgments of good and evil according to the order of the individual's way of life.
Information is indistinguishable from propaganda in that information is an essential element of propaganda because for propaganda to succeed it must have reference to political or economic reality. Propaganda grafts itself onto an already existing reality through "informed opinion".
Citizens are aware that political decisions affect everybody and governments cannot govern without the support, presence, pressure, or knowledge of the people. Yet the people are incapable of making long term policy so opinion must be created to follow the government because the government cannot be led by opinion. All of this describes the "Mass-Government" relationship characterized by people demanding what has already been decided, in order to appear as though the government is actually caring about what the people need.
The propagandist cannot be constrained by the ideology of his State but must operate in service of the state and be able to manipulate the ideology as if it were an object. The ideology merely provides the content for the propagandist to build off since he is limited to what already is present within the group, nation, or society. The fundamental ideologies are nationalism, socialism, communism, and democracy.
Since democracy depends on public opinion, it is clear that propaganda must be involved...However, as discussed in early chapters Ellul described the masses are incapable of making long-term foreign policy and the government needs to make these decisions in a timely manner. This is where propaganda comes into play and projects an artificial reality to the masses to satisfy their need to participate in government while the decisions are really made behind the scenes. .. Democratic regimes develop propaganda in line with its myths and prejudices. Propaganda stresses the superiority of a democratic society while intensifying the prejudices between democratic and oppressive.</i>
A most informative comment/quote on how propaganda works!
« how Ukraine was manipulated into being the sacrificial lamb in order to draw Russia into invading it »
Yes, this is of course really sad, but also fascinating and instructive. At the core, I think, there is the implantation of the transformative idea that "the Ukraine is not Russia, but something better than Russia", in order to forge a new identity ex negativo by constantly referring to Russia as a negative example and almost compulsively stating one's being different, and of course superior. (Which really begs the question of how different they are: usually it's outright lies that are repeated over and over again by propaganda.)
It's a sort of flattery: "You're showing promise, you have potential, you're really good already. You could really be part of our shiny vassal system (Europe), but there's a tiny problem … Russia won't like it, and there might be a war. But don't worry, if you persevere in your efforts, we're going to support you, and we are really strong, as sure you know. Ready whenever you are, but as for the timing and planning, we may have some suggestions, as we happen to have a lot of experience in freedom fighting."
The second part about "drawing Russia in" is also interesting. I think the bear was poked and provoked, but also blinded and distracted; not lured (as was the Ukraine), but encouraged as part of a con game (where con is short for confidence), so as to dare to make a move that it would otherwise not dare to make.
For example, the Russian contingent deployed to Syria helping the government fight the islamist NATO proxies was allowed to do so for a long time, when it would have been possible for the West block powers (which have vastly more resources in the area) to disrupt and suppress the Russian contribution. But they didn't.
> in order to forge a new identity
Both Russia and Ukraine trace their identity to the Kievan Rus. If there's a new identity here, it's not Ukraine's.
Russian subjugation under the mongols continued under autocratic Muscovy, the Russian Tsardom, and eventually the Russian Empire, with peasants trapped under serfdom -- while Ukraine experienced the enlightenment and renaissance much more like the rest of Western Europe.
This led to such transformation that, despite Ukraine gradually losing its independence to Russia since 1654, it was still the industrial heart of the USSR 300 years later despite Russian efforts to modernize the rest of the empire and crush the Ukrainian culture and language.
Beyond industrial capacity, one could debate the superiority of Ukraine's enlightenment ideals around intellectualism, humanism, individual rights, etc. I would choose the one that is better for most citizens and enables greater overall prosperity.
Your comment here is the latest propaganda in hundreds of years of efforts to delegitimize and destroy Ukrainian identity. Luckily we still have history books.