kypro

...joined 9 years ago, and has 8416 karma

Every problem is a search problem.

Nuke the data centers. Save the animals.

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Aug-2026 Update:

AI's are currently nearing PHD-level in math, and frontier labs may already be there with unreleased models. Given this, RSI now seems imminent. Meanwhile, we haven't solved the most basic safety or alignment problems, and we're seeing numerous increasingly significant AI-related security incidents.

I'd now put the probability of ASI by year end at 20%. By end of next I'd put this at 50%+. Really the only question worth asking at this point is what happens next? If we cannot make current AIs do what we want what happens when they're super intelligent?

Spend time with your family while you still can. These are the last months of normality.

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P(doom) = 98.9% (Aug-2026) P(doom) = 98.2% (July-2026) P(doom) = 98.2% (Jun-2026) P(doom) = 98.5% (May-2026) P(doom) = 98.8% (mid-April-2026) P(doom) = 98.7% (April-2026) P(doom) = 98.7% (March-2026) P(doom) = 98.5% (mid-Feb-2026) P(doom) = 97% (Feb-2026) P(doom) = 94% (Jan-2026) P(doom) = 93% (Dec-2025) P(doom) = 95% (July-2025)

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My opinions become more reasonable with time.